Everyone is, of course, concerned with what the mortality rate for COVID-19 is. You could, in fact, call it a life-or-death concern, and it’s become a big news story again today (as with this USA Today story).
So, which is correct? The WHO value of 3.4 percent for COVID-19 mortality, or Trump’s “hunch”?
Warning, there will be math — or at least long division, which seems to overwhelm a lot of people in the press. And actually, worse, there will be probability and statistics, which puzzles almost everyone. And this is compounded by the fact that these things have crisp definitions that aren’t what people think, and worse, there are sometimes multiple definitions for what seems to be the same term.
So, like a good academic paper, let’s start with terminology.