Election betting odds shift in favor of President Trump

News & Politics

Election betting odds are shifting in favor of President Donald Trump as Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is underperforming in several key battleground states that political polling projected him to win.

As of 11:30 p.m. ET, European sportsbook Betfair gave Trump -156 odds to win the U.S. presidential election, a 60.6% chance. Biden is at +152 odds, a 39.4% chance to win.

“It appears the betting market may have overreacted to what appears will be a convincing Trump victory in the state of Florida. Betting odds are starting to shift back to former Vice President Joe Biden, though he far from the favorite he was earlier on Election Day,” Action Network reported late Tuesday.

The odds for Trump have improved significantly since Monday evening, when Biden was given a two-thirds chance to beat Trump at 11:30 p.m. that day.

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As of publishing time, Trump is projected to win the key battleground states of Florida and Ohio and is leading in the vote counts for Georgia and North Carolina. Fox News projected that Biden will win Arizona.

According to the Real Clear Politics average of national polls taken before the election, Biden held an average 7.2 point lead over Trump nationally. Battleground polling gave Biden an average 0.9 point lead in Arizona, a 0.9 point lead in Florida, a 1.2 point lead in Pennsylvania, and Trump a 0.2 point lead in North Carolina.

OutKick also reported betting odds for the election, giving the following odds as of 11 p.m. ET:

Joe Biden: 6/5
Donald Trump: 4/6

“This means Biden is +120 and President Trump is -150. You risk $5 to win $6 on Biden and risk $6 to win $4 on President Trump. This means that President Trump has gone from being a 2-1 underdog as of 5:45 pm ET to being favored,” OutKick reported.

Here are the odds from earlier today (times are p.m. ET):

2:45 – Biden 2/5, Trump 2/1
5:45 – Biden 2/5, Trump 2/1
8:00 – Biden 4/5, Trump 1/1
9:35 – Biden 17/10, Trump 3/10
10:00 – Biden 13/5, Trump 1/4
10:30 – Biden 15/8, Trump 4/9
11:00 – Biden 21/10, Trump 1/3
11:30 – Biden 6/5, Trump 4/6

“Clearly, President Trump has picked up considerable steam throughout the day, especially in the later hours, mirroring the 2016 race. However, that momentum has receded a little bit to become a closer race,” OutKick reported.

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