Will Redistricting Put the GOP on Track to Take Back the House?

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) speaks to the media during a briefing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., March 11, 2021. (Joshua Roberts/Reuters)

An expert estimates the process will hand Republicans three to four seats, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty about how it plays out.


n Monday, the results of the 2020 U.S. Census, which determine how the 435 U.S. House seats will be apportioned for the next decade, were released. Texas picked up two seats, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each picked up one. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, meanwhile, each lost one.

On the presidential level, reapportionment doesn’t change much. If the 2020 presidential election had been run with the new electoral map, Joe Biden would have won the Electoral College 303–235 rather than 306–232. So it seems unlikely that the results of the process will

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