How the Races Are Breaking at the End

J.D. Vance (L), Tim Ryan (C.L.), Gretchen Whitmer (C.R.), Tudor Dixon (R). (Gaelen Morse, Yuri Gripas, Rebecca Cook,Dieu-Nalio Chery/Reuters )
The wave has put Republicans within striking distance of 54 Senate seats, but the gubernatorial map is a lot less clear.


t is Election Day at long last. Barring a runoff in Georgia, there will be no more Election 2022 polling. And while we won’t know all the results by this time tomorrow, we’ll know a lot more than we do now.

Throughout the fall campaign, I have adhered to the same view of elections for the Senate and governorships — particularly in midterm cycles — that I’ve held since 2014. In short:

  • Mid September is really the start, not the end, of serious campaigning; we should not expect most races to remain static from then until Election Day.
  • The national environment

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