In a hypothetical 2024 matchup poll, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) leads Joe Biden in the state of Georgia by four points. According to the poll, which was conducted by Emerson College Polling, DeSantis leads 47% to Biden’s 43%. This normally wouldn’t be terribly significant. Georgia is a red state (I don’t care what anyone says), and DeSantis should be leading Joe Biden in the Peach State.
But the same poll found that in a 2024 hypothetical match-up, 44% of voters would back Biden in a re-election bid, while 43% would prefer Trump to be president. That’s right. This poll found that Trump would lose to Biden in Georgia in 2024.
“Trump runs similarly in 2024 as he did in 2020, losing by under a percentage point. DeSantis can pull ahead of Biden by four points in Georgia, driven by his support among key demographics that support Biden against Trump but flip to DeSantis when he is on the ballot,” explained Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling.
DeSantis’s strength comes from his support from independent voters. “Among Georgia independent voters, Biden wins over Trump by 6 points in a hypothetical contest, with 20% supporting ‘someone else.’ However, when the matchup is Biden vs. DeSantis, the Republican wins by three points, only 8% support ‘someone else,’” Kimball said.
DeSantis also polls better with women voters. According to the poll, Biden has a seven-point lead over Trump among female voters, but that lead was cut down to just two points against DeSantis. Trump has an eight-point advantage over Biden among men, while DeSantis has an 11-point advantage over Biden.
Some will most certainly say, “it’s too early for these polls to mean anything,” and they would have a valid point. However, it must be pointed out that Trump has previously led in the RealClearPolitics average of the 2024 hypothetical match-up polls with Joe Biden. Now he’s trailing, albeit marginally. Trump’s stock has definitely taken a hit in recent weeks, but when you consider the fact that Joe Biden’s approval ratings are now at an RCP average of -13 points, the match-up shouldn’t even be close, let alone show Trump trailing.
In fairness, Trump’s definitely going through what some would call a “rough patch” right now, between the failure of several of his chosen candidates to win key elections in the midterms and the Kanye West kerfuffle, but that doesn’t change the fact that there are built-in weaknesses to Trump’s 2024 candidacy and, I’m sorry to say, it’s questionable whether he can overcome them.
I have stated in the past that I believe the results of the midterm elections in 2022 proved that Ron DeSantis is the future of the Republican Party and that Donald Trump should hand the torch off to him. This poll out of Georgia proves it. The Republican Party can’t afford to lose Georgia because of Trump. There’s a reason why Trump isn’t going to the Peach state before the runoff election between Sen. Warnock and Herschel Walker.
In spite of the fact that I believe Trump was dishonored in 2020 and that I hoped he would exact his vengeance in 2024, the evidence keeps piling up that if the GOP wants to win in 2024, they’ll have to move on from him.